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Overview
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LINK Price
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BTC: —
Reserve
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Unrealized P/L
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TVE
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TVS
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Reserve growth
Last buyback
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Thesis Tracker v1.0
monthly monitoring of the metrics that actually move the thesis
⚠ Critical findings (v1.1)
    Inferred off-chain revenue (90d annualized)
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    = Reserve buyback $ − CCIP fees $. Note: on-chain investigation suggests gross conversion is ~2× this; ~50% may not stay in Strategic Reserve. See critical findings above.
    Reserve buyback (4w avg)
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    target: 300K/wk
    CCIP take rate (latest Q)
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    Whale flows (7d, CEX hot wallets)
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    Net negative = users withdrawing LINK off-exchange (smart-money signal).
      Thesis-confirming triggers
        Thesis-breaking triggers (watch for red)
          External events watch list
            Thesis-impactful announcements
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              Full context: THESIS.md · hypothesis tests
              Data refreshes daily @ 04:00 UTC • source
              Cum Fees
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              Cum Volume
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              Daily Fees (last 90 days)
              Daily Volume (last 90 days)
              Cumulative Fees
              Cumulative Volume
              Quarterly Avg Daily Fees
              Quarterly Avg Daily Volume
              Quarterly Take-Rate (bps)
              avg fees ÷ avg volume × 10,000
              QoQ Growth
              ■ Fees ■ Volume ■ Take-rate
              Quarterly Table
              QAvg FeesAvg VolTake bps
              Last 7 days (vs prior 7)
              Avg daily fees
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              Avg daily vol
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              Take rate
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              Weekly Table (last 8 weeks)
              WeekAvg FeesAvg VolTake bpsWoW
              Total LINK in Reserve
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              Cost Basis
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              Current LINK
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              Unrealized P/L
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              P/L %
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              Revenue acceleration (Reserve buybacks USD)
              Trailing 30 days
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              vs prev 30d
              Trailing 90 days
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              vs prev 90d
              Annualized (30d × 12)
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              Annualized (90d × 4)
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              This is the central thesis-tracking metric. Acceleration = thesis playing out; flat = thesis stalling. See evidence/revenue/chainlink-revenue-overview.md.
              LINK Accumulation
              USD Value
              Weekly Buybacks
              All Buybacks (latest first)
              LINK
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              BTC
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              Beta (90d)
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              Correlation (90d)
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              LINK vs BTC (indexed)
              Rolling 90-day Beta
              Rolling 90-day Correlation
              Daily Returns (last 30 days)
              DateLINKBTC
              Total AUM
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              Latest Day Flow
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              Daily Net Flow (last 90 days)
              green = inflow, red = outflow
              Cumulative Net Inflow (lifetime)
              Total AUM Over Time
              By Issuer (today)
              TickerAUMDaily Flow
              TVE Progress to $38T
              by EOY 2026
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              Required Monthly
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              Recent 6mo Avg
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              Cumulative TVE (vs goal trajectory)
              Monthly TVE Added
              Total Value Secured (TVS)
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              Verified Messages (cumulative)
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              Chainlink SVR — OEV recapture
              Smart Value Recapture on Aave v3 · lifetime
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              Chainlink revenue captured (lifetime)
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              Cumulative Chainlink revenue
              Chainlink revenue by month
              CL revenue (7d)
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              CL revenue (30d)
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              Recaptured (7d)
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              Recaptured (30d)
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              Total recaptured
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              Aave's share
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              Recapture rate
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              Liquidation volume
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              Liquidations
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              Unique searchers
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              SVR recaptures oracle-update MEV (OEV) during Aave liquidations and splits it ~65/35 Aave/Chainlink. A concrete Chainlink off-chain revenue line — part of the ~14–24% Aave revenue concentration in THESIS.md. Revenue is lumpy: it spikes during liquidation cascades in volatile markets. Source: LlamaRisk SVR analytics.
              Pipeline health
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              ⏳
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              On-chain governance monitor
              Payment Abstraction state — auto-checked daily
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              Strategic Reserve has 48hr timelock + 22-signer MCMS in 4 hierarchical groups. See evidence/labs/payment-abstraction-governance.md in the repo.